Skip to main content

How "Big Data" and "New Organizing" will shape elections going forward in India

The Indian General Elections of 2014 will be remembered for their massive numbers. According to the Election Commission of India, the voting schedule has involved 814.5 million people, making it the largest election ever in history. On May 16th the results were declared: the National Democratic Alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party won, beating the United Progressive Alliance led by the Indian National Congress.

What happened next signified, why the nature of this campaign was different than anything that the Indian electorate had seen before.

Narendra Modi, leader of the BJP, made his victory public right away, by tweeting “India has won! The tweet went viral and the landscape of India elections had changed for all times to come.

How was it done?
As per a report in Digital in the Round, Mr. Modi effectively deployed the dual strategies of using Social Media as a campaigning tool and deploying technology for mass outreach. For the first time in Indian electoral history a campaign effectively used Facebook and Twitter to not only increase awareness but also for GOTV (Get out the vote) purposes. In addition the Modi campaign utilized technology for increasing reach through the use of 3D imaging. We have explained both the factors in the discussions below

Using Social Media as a platform to Connect, Message, Mobilize, Engage
He accustomed his voters and large part of the Indian population to a new type of communication from the beginning of the electoral campaign. It started in July 2013 with a digital campaign called “Mission 272+”, referring to the number of seats the BJP needed for a majority in Parliament, which eventually became an Android app. BJP supporters could enroll themselves as voters in a BJP database and enlist others via mobile phone. The feature of enlisting others was crucial as it gave the ability to recruit supporters in the hands of every supporter thus converting every supporter into a mobilizer.

As the basis of the entire campaign Modi used his Facebook and Twitter pages. 15 million people liked his Facebook page until now, and he is only second after the US President Obama in terms of fans following politicians. As the election trend in the Indian pages was growing, Facebook added the “I’m a voter” button which people could click after having voted. This increased the interactivity of the social media platforms (more details on Lighthouse Insights).
Among all social media, Twitter had a predominant role during the entire campaign period, but not only for the BJP’s leader.  Twitter India stated that there have been 56 million election-related Tweets from January 1st until May 12th. It became the medium of choice for people to consume political content and – even more important – to relate with politicians. Modi’s Twitter page counts 4.27M followers. According to Twitter India, 5 out of the 10 Top Elections Tweets have been sent by Modi, including the victory tweet and the selfie with his mother.

On voting day he tweeted a selfie with an inked finger (that means that he voted) and he invited people to share their ones using the hashtag #SelfieWithModi. Needless to say, a huge number of voters started to tweet their inked-finger selfie. In this way he engaged prominently young people that are used to this practice, but not only. Indeed, several elders did the same in order to motivate others to come and vote. Then, all the shared images went on his web page and became part of the giant mosaic of the leader.

Thus by using a combination of Mobile technologies and Social Media, he was not only able to reach out to a large number of young, middle class voters but he was able to effectively build his support base and engage with them in a sustained manner at almost ZERO costs to the campaign!









Using Technology to increase outreach
In order to cover large parts of India in as personalized manner as possible, he used a new technology that politicians have never used before: 3D holograms. This enabled him to hold 100 different rallies around India at the same moment reaching 14 million extra voters while standing in his studio in the Gandhinagar residence.  Voters could go to this “hologram 3D” rallies to see Narendra appearing on the same and talking to them as if he was actually there.
Using technology and Social Media allowed Narendra Modi himself as the leader to communicate with his supporters, creating a direct link between him and people.

The campaign has been compared with Obama’s campaign in 2008 and then in 2012. However I would contest that there is one key difference that separates the two campaigns and that is the use of BIG DATA. I believe that Big Data will very soon transform the political landscape in India too and fundamentally alter the way we run our campaigns.

Analyzing the Obama Campaign
After the voters returned Obama to office for a second term, his campaign became celebrated for its use of technology—much of it developed by an unusual team of coders and engineers—that redefined how individuals could use the Web, social media, and smartphones to participate in the political process. A mobile app allowed a canvasser to download and return walk sheets without ever entering a campaign office; a Web platform called Dashboard gamified volunteer activity by ranking the most active supporters; and “targeted sharing” protocols mined an Obama backer’s Facebook network in search of friends the campaign wanted to register, mobilize, or persuade. [1] This sounds very familiar to the Modi campaign. However this is where the similarities ended.

In Mr. Modi’s campaign social media was primarily used as a means of directing message to the audience. Although there were elements of engagement and mobilization, messaging was the key goal. Persuasion was the key strategy. However in Obama’s campaign, more so in 2012 than in 2008, the main goal was GOTV. Not persuasion but mobilization.

This assertion begs the questions that aren’t elections won by persuading voters in the middle? This is where the Obama campaign differed significantly from the Modi campaign.
The core belief behind this assertion is the fact that traditional methods of classification of voters relies upon polling techniques which slot a large number of voters as in between due to the fact that we simply do not know enough about the voters to slot them correctly.
What the Obama campaign managed to do can be synthesized in 4 simple steps:
1.     Use Social Media and online campaign to spread the key campaign messages and collecting key user data like emails and mobile numbers
2.     Use Emails as a means to engage, fund raise and collect user preference data
3.     Use data collected from the two mediums above to correctly determine voting patterns through BIG DATA analytics
4.     Create a new kind of neighborhood volunteer organization to provide real time updates on voter patterns and thus allowing to target the persuadable voters much more effectively and on polling day to effectively get out the favorable votes

While Mr. Modi’s campaign excelled in Point 1, the aspects that he missed were Point 1,2 and 3, which are key to unlocking the true value of online campaigning.

To illustrate the point further, in the 2008 presidential election, Obama’s targeters had assigned every voter in the country a pair of scores based on the probability that the individual would perform two distinct actions that mattered to the campaign: casting a ballot and supporting Obama. These scores were derived from an unprecedented volume of ongoing survey work. For each battleground state every week, the campaign’s call centers conducted 5,000 to 10,000 so-called short-form interviews that quickly gauged a voter’s preferences, and 1,000 interviews in a long-form version that was more like a traditional poll. To derive individual-level predictions, algorithms trawled for patterns between these opinions and the data points the campaign had assembled for every voter—as many as one thousand variables each, drawn from voter registration records, consumer data warehouses, and past campaign contacts.

At the same time, Obama’s campaign was pursuing a second, even more audacious adventure in persuasion: one-on-one interaction. Traditionally, campaigns have restricted their persuasion efforts to channels like mass media or direct mail, where they can control presentation, language, and targeting. Sending volunteers to persuade voters would mean forcing them to interact with opponents, or with voters who were undecided because they were alienated from politics on delicate issues like abortion. Campaigns have typically resisted relinquishing control of ground-level interactions with voters to risk such potentially combustible situations; they felt they didn’t know enough about their supporters or volunteers. “You can have a negative impact,” says Jeremy Bird, who served as national deputy director of Organizing for America. “You can hurt your candidate.”

The volunteer organization that was thus set up has given birth to a new form of community organizing. An enormous amount of power is unlocked by the incredibly simple act of distributing different roles to people who actually feel comfortable taking them on and converting volunteers into independent yet connected community mobilizers. The program's innovative "neighborhoodteam" structure and the philosophy of volunteer management underlying it that is best summarized by the field campaign's ubiquitous motto: "Respect. Empower. Include."

Every neighborhood was under the leadership of an NTL (Neighborhood Team Leader). An NTL will work with a person from the campaign team called the Field Organizer (FO) to recruit other team members such as coordinators for canvassing, phone banking and data management. An NTL’s team would be responsible for connecting with all of the Democratic and undecided voters within their "turf." Other volunteers who stepped forward in the area would not be managed by the FO, but by NTL's team. As team leader, an NTL would report results to the FO, a couple times per week and would be held accountable for meeting specific goals by certain deadlines. It is unusual for volunteers to have persistent roles and responsibilities. That is the norm for electoral organizing campaigns, and perhaps organizing in general these days. In contrast, the Obama neighborhood team members are organizers themselves, sometimes working more or less as staff alongside the young FO’s. 

Thus the next wave of innovation in campaigning in India will come in the field of use of collecting customer data, analyzing the data and using that data to GET OUT THE RIGHT VOTES!!




Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The Dystopia that is Uttar Pradesh

 How willful ignorance and distortion of facts is endangering millions in rural Uttar Pradesh Babloo Yadav’s brother-in-law died a few days ago. When the author inquired about the cause, the pained reply was, “Pata nahin bhaiya, bukhar tha”. Doctor kuch bata nahin paye,” roughly translates to, “We don’t know, he had a fever, the doctors could not diagnose.” This is a pattern that is repeating in millions of homes across rural Uttar Pradesh where people are supposedly dying of fever, typhoid, pneumonia, or whatever else they choose to assume in the absence of testing and clear diagnosis.  A state of dystopia is characterized by unimaginable suffering, totalitarianism, willful ignorance of the rulers towards the misery of their subjects, and distortion of facts to hide reality. Now let us examine whether Uttar Pradesh meets these dystopian parameters. Unimaginable Suffering The images of bodies floating in rivers in Uttar Pradesh across multiple districts, cremation grounds runn...

The human tragedy that is the National Register of Citizens (India)

In most countries across the world, a residence record spanning nearly 50 years, a record of service to the society in various capacities such as being a veteran, regular tax filing for decades, law-abiding behaviour etc. should be more than enough to prove citizenship, NOT in India though. A career soldier , a serving doctor , a mother who is deemed an Indian citizen but her daughters are not , a brother whose real brother is a citizen but he is an illegal immigrant , a sitting member of Legislative Assembly  in Assam excluded and even an ex President's family being omitted are some of the stories emanating from the unending human tragedy that is the National Register of Citizens (NRC) process in Assam. Authorities in the northeastern state of Assam have published a citizenship list that aims to identify genuine citizens and seeks to exclude "Bangladeshi immigrants". "Bangladeshi immigrants" are defined as all those who are unable to provide documentary ...

The Case For Printing More Money & Distributing It!

What I will argue for in this article is quite unorthodox and contrary to the conventional economic arguments that we are used to. I propose that in order to tide over the COVID 19 crisis and kick start the economy; the government should consider printing money and transferring the equivalent amount directly into the thirty crore Jan Dhan accounts. This will work to seamlessly ensure that the money reaches the masses while acting as a stimulant to revive demand. In economic terms, we call it monetizing the fiscal deficit that is a red herring in traditional economic logic, as most economists would rightly argue against printing money to finance deficits, citing inflation as a major concern.  The reason is that printing more money doesn’t increase economic output – it only increases the amount of cash circulating in the economy. If more money is printed, consumers are able to demand more goods, but if firms have still the same amount of goods, they will respond by putting up p...